Mortgage Rates Swings Back

Mortgage rates have had a wild a crazy two days as rates went up past the ceiling early on Friday after the comments from the Fed's at the Jackson Hole symposium.  Markets interpreted those comments as the Fed being more likely to hike rates in 2016 - possibly even twice!  While mortgage rates are based on MBSs, as opposed to the Fed Funds Rate (the thing the Fed is talking about hiking), if investors think the Fed is more likely to hike, MBS tend to lose some ground of which it did on Friday.

However, two trading sessions is not much of a confirmation of interest rate direction but it does indicate how markets no longer pay much attention to the Fed and its musings. Last Thursday the day before Friday’s long-awaited speech from Janet Yellen, hoping she would clear the air about what the Fed will do in the coming months about increasing interest rates markets were on edge. The reaction to her speech on Friday in the financial media was that she talked the talk and was about to walk the walk. Over the top confirmation the Fed would move no later than in December with some still holding to a September move.

After the dust has settled, we are seeing better rates than the day before it all began, as the 10yr settled in at 1.56% this afternoon.  Even though the report today was somewhat favorable towards inflation (a key component of the Feds), nothing has change.

I was impressed with the rebound in the bond and mortgage markets today but continue to worry over how low rates can actually go – or will they make a reversal and head up?  Still have a lot of data this week with August employment on Friday then a three-day weekend. Continue to watch the dollar as another indication of what markets believe the Fed may do, and when. The dollar was stronger today but well off the level this morning as US interest rates declined.

In summary, we have survived the Jackson Hole fiasco. Pretty tame actually. Being the last week of Summer I would have expected things to be quiet but we do have to contend with the NFP report on Friday. Stay tuned as with a lot of traders most likely on vacation this week there may, or may not, be some swings with possible liquidity issues and a few traders moving the pile. But as long as we are in this tight range – rates are great and it would not be a bad idea to lock in if you are closing in the next 30 days – unless you have a passion for taking that risk and hoping for the best – which I see is too much than the reward could be.