Mortgage Rates Moved Higher Today

Mortgage rates moved higher today after hitting the lowest levels in roughly 2 weeks last Friday.  Rate markets gave back all of the price gains from the Q2 GDP miss last Friday. Softer news this morning with the July ISM manufacturing index expected a little bit higher than reported, was really not a huge miss. 

Tomorrow we get some more key data with June personal income and personal spending. July auto and truck sales also out through the session tomorrow.

Crude oil continues to fall, down $1.61 to $39.99 and below its 200 day average now. Under $40.00 sets a move to $35.00 technically.  

With all of the data coming the rest of the week and the big decline in rates last week with no follow-through on the Q2 GDP data, I do not know if floating should still be with caution, but back to locking within 15 days maybe the best bet.  Should one wait until markets settle and digest the impact of slowing growth?  As long as investors are avoiding low rates for safety, to drive rates lower will require weaker data on Friday’s July employment data.

In summary, bond markets pulled back slightly, which was hardly a surprise after last week's strong rally and month end demand.  Treasuries are still well below my "line in the sand" yield of 1.52%, and as long as that's the case, I am not in a hurry to lock new loans.  This week's trading will be driven by Friday's NFP report.  May's was remarkably bad, June's was remarkably strong (yet rates held up well).  If you are floating now, and a gambler, float into Friday, you might draw a straight flush.  If you are more conservative, take the chips off the table by Thursday, put the money in your pocket, and do not look back.