Mortgage Rates Moving Upward

Mortgage rates are moving upward after some positive economic news and the easing of issues across the pond in Japan.   The most prevalently quoted conforming 30yr fixed rates for top tier borrowers was still at 4.125%, but 4.0% was there with fees.

Last night while we slept, the Bank of Japan and the Japanese Government Pension got together and announced two major stimulus plans.  The unexpected news sent the US stocks rallying early this morning with the DJIA at one point up 250. The dollar leaped higher against the yen and euro on the news. Markets see easier and less expensive imports with a stronger dollar but the down side is exports will suffer. Today no one cared about fewer exports, no one cared that Sept personal income and spending were much weaker than forecasts. Earlier this week Sept durable goods orders were down on expectations of an increase.  August durables were down . Q3 advance GDP better than expectations +3.5% but down from 4.6% in Q2. The positives this week - consumer confidence index increased to the best level since 2007 and the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased to the best since July 2007. Paying close attention to the two consumer measurements, both strong but why? I suggest because the stock market has had two strong weeks. Hard to square the decline in personal spending and income with the stronger consumer readings.

The 10 is hanging by its toe nail at 2.35%, earlier this week the note broke its support at 2.30% however since then it is holding reasonably well and in turn MBSs are holding on.

In summary, Huge shake-up for markets with Japan adding more stimulus. It's become so redundant to see equities rally heavily on the fact of more money coming in to stimulate the economy, and later on watching it all unwind into bonds. Overall a much more bullish picture either way for all asset classes and debt.  2.35% on the 10yr has proven to be of substantial importance, and  I am a firm believer in floating through and through as I anticipate better rates/spreads are coming.  But I have known to be wrong once or twice, and if you talk to my wife, more than that.  Right now, I am optimistic. 

Remember, if you want to know the benefits of locking your rate today versus floating, simply give me a call at 314-744-7806 or visit me on my website at www.CallTheMoneyMan.com. I have access to real time Wall St. data and instant market alerts with breaking news that I monitor throughout the day to assist us on making the informed decision.