By The Number$
Enjoy today's issue of By The Number$, and use a few of these talking points with
your clients and referral partners throughout the week.
1. BETTER THAN AVERAGE – The bull market for the S&P 500 that began on 3/09/09 begins its 58th month today, having gained
+195.3% (total return) in the 57 months through last Friday 12/06/13, an
average monthly gain of +1.9%. The average
bull market for the index since 1950 has lasted 57 ½ months. The S&P 500
consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group
representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock's weight in
the index proportionate to its market value
(source: BTN Research).
2. TWO
HUNDRED PERCENT -
The current stock bull market for
the S&P 500 is the index’s 11th bull
since 1950. Only 3 of the previous 10 bulls have achieved at least +200% in total return gains (source: BTN Research).
3. COMPARED
TO OTHERS - The S&P 500 is up +29.1%
YTD (total return) through Friday 12/06/13. 2013 is the first year of the 4-year presidential cycle. The average
total return for the S&P 500 stock index during
the last 20 “presidential 1st years”
(i.e., first years during 1933-2009) had been a gain of just +6.8% (source: BTN Research).
4. MIDDLE OF THE
PACK - The individual stock that was ranked 250th (out of the 500 stocks in the S&P 500) in YTD
performance through 11/30/13 was up
+28.8% (source: BTN Research).
5. FOUR TRILLION
GAIN - From 12/31/12 to 11/30/13, the S&P 500 index has
grown its market capitalization from
$12.7 trillion to $16.5 trillion, an
increase of $3.8 trillion (source: BTN Research).
6. ONE TRILLION GAIN - From 12/31/12 to 11/30/13, the Federal Reserve has
grown its balance sheet (through
“quantitative easing”) from $3.0 trillion to $3.9 trillion, an increase of $900 billion (source:
Federal Reserve).
7. BEN AND THE GANG - The 8th and final meeting
of 2013 for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled for December
17-18. It was at the Fed’s December 2008 meeting (held on 12/16/08) that the
FOMC voted unanimously to cut short-term
interest rates to near zero from its then current level of 1%. Since then,
the FOMC has met 39 times and voted
on each occasion to leave rates
unchanged (source: FOMC).
8. FOR BIG BUSINESSES - Beginning 1/01/15 (less than 13 months
from today), US companies that employ at
least 50 individuals (that work at least 30 hours a week) must offer “affordable health care coverage” to
those full-time employees. Affordability is measured by limiting the cost of the health insurance to no more than 9.5% of
an individual’s income (source: Affordable Care Act).
9. PENALTY - Everyone not covered by Medicare, Medicaid or an
individually purchased private plan or a plan available through one’s employer
must enroll in a health insurance plan though an ObamaCare state/federal
exchange or pay a 2014 penalty of
“the greater of” $95 or 1% of income.
The penalty increases in subsequent years. The 2016 fine is “the greater of” $695 or 2.5% of income (source:
Affordable Care Act).
10. NO SHUTDOWN - If the Murray/Ryan committee does not come to
an agreement by their Friday 12/13/13 deadline on top-line discretionary spending for FY 2014, a “continuing resolution” could keep
government spending going under current
law, including next year’s $109
billion sequestration cuts (source: Congress).
11. MILITARY CUTS - If the 2014 sequestration
spending cuts occur as scheduled, the Pentagon must implement $54.7 billion in spending reductions
next month, on top of the $42.5 billion
of cuts that occurred in March 2013 (source: Budget Control Act).
12. TEN YEARS - Over the next decade (through fiscal year 2023), discretionary spending in the USA is
projected to increase $202 billion, a
+17% increase. Over the next decade (through fiscal year 2023), mandatory spending in the USA is
projected to increase $1.6 trillion, a
+79% increase (source: Congressional Budget Office).
13. BENDING THE CURVE - When a Social Security committee (chaired by Alan Greenspan) implemented changes in
1983 that gradually increased the
age at which a retiree would receive full
social security benefits from age 65 to age 67, only Americans that were 20 or more years from turning 65 were
impacted. Through 2012, the savings of the 1983 changes were $100 billion. However, over the next 75 years, the 1983 reforms will
save Social Security $4.6 trillion
(source: Social Security).
14. MISSED OUT - The median
household income in the USA increased
+124% (adjusted for inflation) over the 23 years from 1984-2007, an annual
increase of +3.6% per year. From
2007-2012, our nation’s median household income increased only +1.6% over the 5 years, an annual increase of just +0.3% (source: Census Bureau).
15. FIRST DOWN - Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings became the
28th player (and 3rd quickest ever)
to reach 10,000 career rushing yards
on 12/01/13. Peterson still trails Emmitt Smith by 8,298 yards (source: NFL).
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