Mortgage Rates Calm Before Jobs Report

Mortgage rates were calm today ahead of the very important data that comes out the first Friday of every month, that being the Jobs Report.  The most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for top tier scenarios was pushed solid to 4.125%,   but depending on various fees 4.00% still can be done.

As I mentioned, nothing to speak about this afternoon as the action, or the lack of it, did not imply anything whatsoever.  Every month the day before employment investors and traders move to anticipate the data that has a huge history of being volatile and many times well off the mark against estimates.  Weekly claims today were encouraging.  Can that be a sign?  The breakdown of sectors will get attention - most jobs recently have been in the low end of the pay scale.

Other concerns – 24 hours of the election and the lovely press conference by the President and here we go again.  Bi-partisan politics?  It is not starting out to well – a precursor for the next 2 years?   Also there is no specifics from the ECB meeting today but more talk, something that Draghi has been doing for a few months.

Treasury is out worrying about student loan debt – referring it to the possibility of another US housing bubble.  High default rates and delinquencies may damage Americans’ credit worthiness and curtail their ability to invest in homes and businesses.  They also create uncertainty for the Treasury, which finances about $100B of new student loans per year.  The total debt of all student loans at the end of Q2, $1.3 trillion according to last month’s consumer credit data released by the Fed, tomorrow we get another look. One huge reason millennials can’t or won’t buy a home anytime soon.

The 10yr note has been very interesting the past few weeks.  A break above one way or another can send this towards 2.20% or above 2.50%.  A large swing one way or another.

In summary, another day of treading water for us as rates were essentially flat ahead of the October jobs report tomorrow. Typically, a strong jobs report hurts rates, a weak report helps. The report is released before lenders issue rate sheets, so floating borrowers will feel the impact of any changes (whether for better or worse). I am not overly concerned about rates rising dramatically, but for loans in process for conservative borrowers, locking today was the play. 

Keep a strong look at the markets and continue to cautiously float if you do want to take a risk. Remember, if you want to know the benefits of locking your rate today versus floating, simply give me a call at 314-744-7806 or visit me on my website at www.CallTheMoneyMan.com. I have access to real time Wall St. data and instant market alerts with breaking news that I monitor throughout the day to assist us on making the informed decision.