Mortgage Rates Doing Much of Nothing - Key Data Out Friday

Mortgage rates are not really doing much of anything these last few days, even with the drastic up and down we started the week with. As far as markets are concerned, the net effect of today's bond trading probably suggested an upward pressure on rates. The last few sessions has also shown very little change in the stock markets.  There has not been much key data this week but tomorrow we have three points to look at. News continues to be mostly about Russian hacking - lots of suspicions and denials and accusations of leaks but nothing concrete.

The dollar improved yesterday and again today, something worth noting but also nothing significant to stir any news. Can you believe there was a lot of talk about Mickey Ds going with fresh meat on its quarter pounder in 18 months?  That’s right, and you wonder why people want to hear what the Feds are saying as the grass has yet started to grow, or we might be writing about that.

Trump tossed the dueling glove, warning the Freedom Caucus to get it together or he will campaign against them next year. The caucus responsible for the health care failure. Politics getting nasty. Markets yawn and move on.  

Tomorrow we get February personal income and spending, along with the personal consumption expenditures, Yellen’s’ inflation favorite.  A little later we will get the March Chicago purchasing mgrs. Index which has been strong in recent months, followed by the final March U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

No major changes in mortgage rates this week, just a chop back and forth.  Maybe tomorrow. Technically there is strong near term resistance for the 10yr at 2.32% and mortgage rates also finding resistance at the current levels. Fed officials keep touting more rate increases, Fed officials blowing air about how many. Never overlook that unless markets expect increases the Fed will not.  Of course, the data markets see is the same as the Fed sees, no divergence. Data is the key.

In summary, I commented yesterday that treasury yields were near our recent range's (2.38-2.42%) low, and as if on cue, they rose today to 2.42%.  We are still near the 30-day low for rates, so there's no shame in locking at these levels.  I would rather pick up a fallen knife than have a falling one pierce my hand.