Mortgage Rates a Little Choppy

We have seen choppy markets with no big changes in the bond and mortgage markets over the last two days. Mainly, everyone is waiting for the ECB on Thursday and the FOMC meeting next week. This morning the September housing starts and permits clearly showed a weakness in single family starts and permits. Multi-family starts were up however while single family was low. Building permits do not look good for the future.  Yesterday’s NAHB housing market index completely different, as it was very optimistic. Looked strong but today’s data put a little damper on the optimism.

I thought Fed officials were to stop talking today?  WRONG! - it starts tonight. In the meantime Fed Governor Powell said that lower liquidity in bond markets is a price worth paying for greater financial stability in response to complaints from investors that a tighter post-crisis regulatory environment is hampering Wall Street banks' ability to make markets.

Tomorrow the only report is the weekly MBA mortgage applications. The 10yr note climbed to its 20 day average today at 2.08%. MBS prices went negative again today as it was only a dribble yesterday, but two days in a row does not bold well.   US stocks flat today. A pause that refreshes, or a pause of concern?

In summary, as I mentioned yesterday, we are trudging along, stuck within recent rate ranges. Pricing declined modestly today, enough to impact lender credits, but not actual rates. I am still locking sooner rather than later, as I do not see any looming events that could shock this market into substantial improvement. Especially with TRID deadlines and lead times, it is just simpler to have as many loan elements as possible defined early in the process!