Mortgage Rates Unchanged Amongst Volatility
If you are looking for what we mean by market
volatility, today is a good example. Mortgage rates were lower at first today. The
bond markets that underlie mortgage rate movement continued taking cues from
global volatility surrounding yesterday's big news out of China. This morning
the US stock market was under more heavy selling pressure but as the afternoon
wore on the key indexes reversed and ended a little better. The rate markets
also succumbed to their morning improvement and when the 10yr note auction was
very weak in terms of demand the 10yr lost its momentum.
China’s re-valuing it’s currency still causing
confusion and uncertainty as to what the next move from China will be. It’s
economy slowing rapidly, an attempt to make its exports more competitive
surprised markets yesterday, today the knee jerk reactions reversing somewhat
but markets remain on edge. Today the US dollar is weakening against the yen
and euro currency adding more questions.
We can debate the hell out of this now but to little
or no avail. What we know is China’s economy is slowing quickly, China is the
second largest economy next to the US, China decline will affect all of the
global markets, the Fed has a bigger hill to climb now in terms of increasing
rates in September as most believed and many economists still do, and there is
absolutely no inflation in prices. As China goes so goes the rest of Asian
markets. What we do not know - will China continue to use monetary moves to try
to reverse its economic decline (7% growth in Q1 and Q2) now the outlook is
less optimistic.
Tomorrow a very key domestic report - July retail
sales, the expectation is for overall sales up. Weekly claims also are expected
unchanged, along with July export and import prices. Later we will see the
number on June business inventories, followed by the afternoon where the Treasury
will issue a new 30yr bond, selling $16B.
In summary, the outlook remains positive for US
interest rates at the long end of the curve - here though is the rub as the
work will not turn negative until the 10yr note moves above 2.24%. A pause
after dramatic rate movements (either up or down) is hardly surprising, and
does not prove the trend to lower rates is ending. I will continue to consider
floating loans for risk-tolerant clients, but will do so warily. The trend is
still our friend (or at least not our enemy) at the moment.
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