Mortgage Rates See Little Movement

Mortgage rates did not see much movement today in the bond and MBS markets but early this morning panicky investors in Europe piled into treasuries and other key sovereign debt on the breakdown of talks over the weekend between Greece and its creditors. On June 30th Greece has a payment due the IMF, and pay Greek pensions. No way that will occur unless there is a deal accepted by the IMF, ECB, EU and EC that will allow more emergency funds to Greece. No way now to handicap what will occur or how markets will react. Lots of talk and opinions but no one really knows, just suspicions. If it were not for the FOMC meeting, the policy statement and Yellen’s press conference on Wednesday it is very likely the US bond and mortgage markets would have had a better day on safety considerations.

CNBC drooling over the NAHB housing market index this morning that was a lot better than expected, the best since last September. Not much attention to the very week industrial production in May, April and March - passed off due to the strong dollar. There is another key report due tomorrow, but if it is as expected, will not generate much movement because of Wednesday’s events. May housing starts expected down, along with building permits expected down. That starts and permits are likely to be weak is due to the huge gains in both in April. 

In summary, look for quiet tomorrow ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday. This week shapes up to be a potentially risky and volatile week for mortgage rates as the Fed June meeting unfolds as well as further potential Greek drama that may come to a head at any moment. With risks this high I would recommend locking all loans for now.