Mortgage Rates Not Moving Much Today

Mortgage rates are not moving very much today, as that was to be expected if the news this morning was close to expectations and the three-day holiday upon us.  For the past few days, it has been very quiet and the markets has experienced low volatility, and I do not anticipate that to change today.

This morning, the first QTR GDP reading was originally released at 0.7%. In its first revision (will be revised again) it was moved up to 1.2% which was much stronger than market expectations of 0.8% and explains why the Fed was so dismissive of the original 0.7% print. Consumer Spending was revised upward double the initial release to 0.6%.

Durable Goods Orders showed the April headline reading much stronger than expected, but this is a very volatile report as evidenced by March's revision which was huge in reverse.  The Consumer Sentiment May reading was revised a tad upward. Even though these reports were stronger than anticipated, the guts were the disappointment that kept the traders at bay.

With high levels of security concerns after the Manchester bomb, interest rates in Europe are better on safety concerns. Here in the US, there are also concerns over terrorist activities along with North Korea and the continual and increasing mess of leaks - what appears as chaos in the Administration. Leaks from administration personnel continue.  The recent leak of sensitive information about the Manchester bombing causing more concerns that the world cannot trust the US. Someone or some group is leaking sensitive data and supporting the concerns of investors. Some of the leaks appear to be coming from within the inner circle of Trump’s people. News out this morning that Jared Kushner, a senior White House adviser, and Trump’s son-in-law, is under scrutiny by the FBI in the Russia probe. Kushner is the only current White House official known to be considered a key person in the probe--so far. Interest in Kushner does not mean investigators suspect him of a crime or intend to charge him.

This morning's economic data was negative for mortgage rates, but we have offsetting support due to WTI Oil back below $50, Geopolitical concern and a long holiday weekend which effectively starts at noon today for most bond traders.  I am looking for mortgage rates to trade in the same tight range today with low volatility and recommending that one should cautiously float unless you are closing in the next 15 days.