Mortgage Rates Bounced Around Today

Mortgage rates bounced around quite a bit yesterday, selling off in the morning, and then slowly climbing out of the hole for the remainder of the day.  The net result was that there was not much change in rates yesterday.  This morning mortgage bonds began the day by selling off on some reasonably decent economic data.  Yesterday’s Fed meeting did not bring anything unexpected to the table, and today’s data is not especially important in the scheme of things.  The next big event that could impact rates in a significant manner will be the April employment numbers, which come out a week from tomorrow.

The new Primary Mortgage Market Survey from Freddie Mac showed the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose from 3.65% last week to 3.68% this week.  Most of the survey answers are collected early in the week, so this does not really reflect current conditions (rates are slightly higher now).  Even so, mortgage rates have been in a tight range for the past month and only the last few days has made a few stomachs churn if there was going to be a big movement upward.  Big yawn.

From a lock/float standpoint, there is still a lot of negative momentum in bond markets.  To shift my stance away from a short term lock bias would be to attempt to catch a wave here on the Mississippi River.  That does not tend to make a lot of sense on the last day of any given month as those aforementioned "month-end" bond trades can distort reality.  With all that said, it looks as though the April jobs report will show a big bounce back, which poses a definite threat to rates.

In summary, it is still too soon to see what direction rates will now be headed in.  Locking is the prudent things to do especially if your closing is weeks away.  If you have 30 days or more waiting to see how things shake out is not a bad idea.