Mortgage Rates Finally See Relief
We finally saw some relief today in the mortgage
rates after eight days of a bloodbath! The bond and mortgage markets were
looking nice prior to the 30yr bond auction. The 10yr at 1.97% down 3 bps and
30yr MBS price +23 bps and up 14 bps better than earlier this morning. Stock
market continues to inch higher led by the tech sector - looks like everyone in
the markets ignored another soft retail report.
OK, put down the knife! I have been stating with a few others out there, the outlook on how I have been bearish on the economic outlook for over a year, and so far the negative outlook has been wrong, and those that acted on this opinion have left a lot of money on the table in the last year. My expertise is forecasting near term movements in the bond and mortgage markets – there who listened made or saved a lot of money from my recommendations. I am not going postal with long term forecasts, and everyone here should keep that in focus.
This week hasn’t offered much in the way of key data. The near term outlook for the rate markets remains bearish. 30yr MBS prices did have a good day and the 10yr only up 1 bps to 1.98%, holding below 2.00% on a close for the third day.
In summary, is the love back in the markets? I will give the same guidance as yesterday - no shame in locking in at these rates. Also, keep in mind that markets are closed on Monday, so do not expect any change from tomorrow's close in terms of rates or price. It may be risky, but I might start off tomorrow floating cautiously, trying to see if I can scalp a few more dollars in the right direction for my clients.
OK, put down the knife! I have been stating with a few others out there, the outlook on how I have been bearish on the economic outlook for over a year, and so far the negative outlook has been wrong, and those that acted on this opinion have left a lot of money on the table in the last year. My expertise is forecasting near term movements in the bond and mortgage markets – there who listened made or saved a lot of money from my recommendations. I am not going postal with long term forecasts, and everyone here should keep that in focus.
This week hasn’t offered much in the way of key data. The near term outlook for the rate markets remains bearish. 30yr MBS prices did have a good day and the 10yr only up 1 bps to 1.98%, holding below 2.00% on a close for the third day.
In summary, is the love back in the markets? I will give the same guidance as yesterday - no shame in locking in at these rates. Also, keep in mind that markets are closed on Monday, so do not expect any change from tomorrow's close in terms of rates or price. It may be risky, but I might start off tomorrow floating cautiously, trying to see if I can scalp a few more dollars in the right direction for my clients.
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