Mortgage Rates Have Little Change Before Jobs Report

Mortgage rates had a little bit of a change today, but nothing that really mattered in regards to the quotes given out yesterday versus today.   The most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for top tier scenarios remains at 4.125%,  with the closing costs associated with this being the only change, but 4.25% is still be quoted with no fees .

A volatile day ahead of tomorrow’s Sept employment report. The DJIA at one point down 130 points then swung around to end the session about unchanged. After yesterday’s selling and decline in interest rates it was going to be that kind of session. The rate markets were following the stocks around like a puppy on a leash. The 10yr opened at 2.41% up 2 bps points, declined to 2.40% on the weak stock indexes then this afternoon the rate jumped to 2.44%. MBS prices opened weaker, then rallied to unchanged before fading along with the 10 yr.

Beside employment tomorrow there are two other data points to consider. The Sept ISM services sector index is expected at 58.8 from 59.6; the ISM manufacturing index took a big drop on Wednesday and the regional Chicago PM index also declined. The estimates for September jobs is +215,000 for both private and total job growth, the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.1%. How the ISM services sector data effects the markets will depend on how the employment report looks; a soft employment report and weak ISM index mixed together will drive stocks down and take interest rates lower - the converse will also set up big moves but in the other direction. Also tomorrow the August trade deficit is expected at -$40.9B.

In summary, tomorrow brings us the most important economic data that we get on a monthly basis. Market is expecting about 215,000 jobs created, but will also be looking for the prior month to be revised higher. Anything short of that should allow bonds to at least hold onto the recent gains. Floating through the payrolls report is always risky. Take your risk tolerance into account and float or lock accordingly.

Keep a strong look at the markets and continue to cautiously float if you do want to take a risk. Remember, if you want to know the benefits of locking your rate today versus floating, simply give me a call at 314-744-7806 or visit me on my website at www.CallTheMoneyMan.com. I have access to real time Wall St. data and instant market alerts with breaking news that I monitor throughout the day to assist us on making the informed decision.