Mortgage Rates Steady

Mortgage rates again were steady even though the Bond markets overseas were strong.  The caution was justified as bond markets never threatened to move back toward overnight levels. The most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rates remain 4.125% and 4.25% depending on individual details.

How many times can the bellwether 10yr note try and fail to break its strong resistance at 2.44%? It was tested early this morning on increased tensions in Ukraine/Russia and Italy falling back into recession. The sanctions levied on Russia are increasingly causing Europe’s economies more pain. In the US not much, Europe’s economy is taking the full force of sanctions.

The only data today, the June traded deficit, was better than thought at -$41.5% a decline of 7% from May and will be a plus in calculating Q2 GDP when the preliminary report is released later this month. This week is absent of data with just three reports of substance for the near term outlook; two were reported yesterday (June factory orders and July ISM services sector index) tomorrow is the third one, weekly jobless claims. Not to underestimate Q2 productivity and unit labor costs and June wholesale inventories, but this is the third quarter.

The 10yr failed again at 2.44%, declining to 2.435% early this morning, it is at 2.47% presently. Floating for mortgage originators has been unproductive and today is no different. MBS prices are weaker now than this morning.

In summary, we are still in the range, until we are not. Locking at the lows is the sophisticated approach here, regardless of the trend. We are entering the end of the summer where we always have less participants trading and are always subject to trader’s perception. We have seen this song & dance with Europe too many times in the last 5 years. Locking is the best choice here for loans within a 15 day window, 30 days out should also book the rate before it's gone. The likelihood we break below the low 2.4's on 10's is slim to none, and slim is out of town.